Polls Continue to Predict Hard Fought Battles in Fulham Wards

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Labour still projected to retain control but local issues could confound experts

Hammersmith and Fulham goes to the polls on 7 May

April 27, 2026

The latest polling has confirmed earlier analysis that wards in the SW6 area will be some of the most hard fought in the local elections, however projections give little chance of an overall change of control in the borough. There is, however, little need for a reminder that polls have got election results very wrong many times in recent years.

Pollcheck projects Labour to hold Hammersmith and Fulham Council with 38 of 50 seats — actually an increase of two on their current tally of 36, with the Conservatives holding steady on 10, the Lib Dems picking up one new seat, and the Greens losing one. The two "Others" seats (currently held by former Labour defectors sitting as independents) are projected to switch back to Labour. The same projections forsee a 14.4 percentage point (pp) drop in Labour's vote share.

Labour's position appears to have marginally improved since projections earlier this month which perhaps indicates the failure of the controversy over Lord Mandelson to have any impact on voting intentions.

Ward by Ward Projections for SW6

Ward	Winner	Margin	Seats	Lab	Con	LD	Green	Ref	Others
Munster	Con	1.3pp		13.0	33.6	32.3	9.7	11.3	0.0
Sands End	Lab	9.8pp		36.6	26.9	14.9	9.9	11.7	0.0
Lillie	Lab	18.0pp		43.5	25.4	11.3	13.2	6.7	0.0
Parsons Green & Sandford	Con	22.9pp		7.3	46.9	11.1	24.0	10.7	0.0
Fulham Town	Con	24.2pp		15.1	45.8	21.6	9.8	7.7	0.0
Palace & Hurlingham	Con	24.5pp		15.2	41.9	17.4	12.2	13.3	0.0
Walham Green	Lab	29.2pp		45.3	13.9	16.0	11.8	13.0	0.0
Fulham Reach	Lab	30.7pp		50.1	11.5	8.7	19.4	10.4	0.0
West Kensington	Lab	38.1pp		54.9	6.7	16.8	9.4	12.2	0.0

Source: Pollcheck

The most striking shift between the earlier projections and the new data is in Sands End, which was previously described as Labour's most vulnerable ward in the borough. The new data shows Labour with a 9.8pp lead — much more comfortable than the near-dead-heat projected before. The fear that Green vote-splitting would let the Conservatives sneak through a third seat now looks less acute, though it remains the closest contest in Fulham.

Munster has tightened dramatically and is now the most nail-biting ward in the borough. The Conservative lead has collapsed from 8pp to just 1.3pp, with the Liberal Democrats now in second place rather than the Greens. This reflects the Lib Dem surge seen across inner London and the south..

The three safe Conservative wards — Parsons Green & Sandford, Fulham Town, and Palace & Hurlingham — appear set to remain firmly blue, with margins of 22.9pp, 24.2pp, and 24.5pp respectively. Conservative group leader Jose Afonso's seat in Parsons Green & Sandford looks secure. The candidate slate data confirms that eight of ten sitting Conservative councillors are defending their seats, suggesting the party is not conceding ground.

Lillie, Fulham Reach, West Kensington and Walham Green all show Labour with comfortable margins, ranging from 18pp to 38.1pp. The Greens remain the main challenger in Lillie and Fulham Reach, but vote shares are not translating into projected seats under first-past-the-post. The current Mayor of Hammersmith & Fulham, Sharon Holder, appears well-placed to hold her Lillie seat.

The biggest structural change from the April analysis is the emergence of the Liberal Democrats as the key challenger in Munster, not the Greens. With a 32.3pp projected share and a gap of just 1.3pp behind the Conservatives, this has become Fulham's most competitive ward — and the Lib Dems' best chance of winning a council seat in the borough. Their Fulham Town candidacy (21.6pp in second place, 24.2pp behind) is a more distant prospect, despite relatively strong showing in the recent by-election.

Despite Reform fielding a full slate of 50 candidates across the borough, the new ward data confirms they are not competitive in any Fulham ward, with shares ranging from roughly 7–14%. The slate data also notes that one of their Munster candidates has withdrawn after being double-listed.

The Greens are polling respectably across several Labour-held Fulham wards — second in Lillie (13.2pp), Fulham Reach (19.4pp) and Walham Green (11.8pp) — but first-past-the-post could prove to be brutal for them here. Neither of the two current Green councillors (both Labour defectors) is defending their seat, meaning the party faces the prospect of losing its council presence entirely despite maintaining a significant vote share.

Labour has been in control since 2014 and has become more entrenched locally. The key question in 2026 is whether its majority will be chipped away by the Conservatives, Greens or smaller parties. On the new projections, the answer appears to be: not much. Labour actually gains seats on balance, largely by absorbing the "Others" seats back from the former defectors.

One important caveat from the candidate analysis: 27 of 36 sitting Labour councillors are defending their seats, and 8 of 10 Conservative councillors are doing the same. This high incumbency rate across both main parties tends to dampen volatility — sitting councillors typically outperform their party's national swing, and Pollcheck's model accounts for this. The election is unlikely to produce dramatic surprises in Fulham, with Munster the one ward where an upset remains genuinely possible.

223 of the 224 candidates are listed as either living in the borough, or with an exact address in the borough (mainly Liberal Democrats). Of the 27 candidates listing their address - twelve live in SW6, six in W14, five in W12 and four in W6. One Reform candidate is listed as living in Colchester.

David is the most popular first name - with eight candidates and there are four James and a further Jamie. Four Andrews and four Stephens (but no Stevens) also appear on the ballot papers. Olivia is the most popular female candidate name - with three of them standing.

Candidate Lists

Palace and Hurlingham
Candidate	Party
Aliya Afzal-Khan	Conservatives
Shirley Cupit	Labour
Matt Dobson	Green Party
Tamara Dragadze	Liberal Democrats
Nick Elverston	Labour
Guy Hennings	Reform UK
Stephen Lewis	Reform UK
Amanda Lloyd-Harris	Conservatives
Jeremy Maddocks	Conservatives
Orlando Morley	Labour
William Tucker	Reform UK

Parsons Green and Sandford
Candidate	Party
Jose Afonso	Conservatives
Sam Hunter Jones	Green Party
Jerome Lussan	Liberal Democrats
Peter Moore	Reform UK
Graham Peter Muir	Liberal Democrats
Rajeev Nair	Reform UK
Sana Omar	Green Party
Adrian Pascu-Tulbure	Conservatives
Alexandra Thomas	Labour
Isabella Wyatt	Labour

 

Munster
Candidate	Party
Adronie Elizabeth Alford	Conservatives
Lawrence Gould	Liberal Democrats
Mervyn Guille	Reform UK
David Kelly	Reform UK
Jason Khan	Green Party
Caroline Needham	Labour
Lucy O’Sullivan	Reform UK
Philipp Rader	Liberal Democrats
Dominic Stanton	Conservatives
Ted Townsend	Liberal Democrats
Guy Vincent	Labour
Stewart Edward Waine	Conservatives
Patrick Walsh	Labour

Sands End
Candidate	Party
Henry Bagwell	Liberal Democrats
Deep Bassi	Reform UK
Amanda Beddows-Adams	Reform UK
Benjamin Budd	Liberal Democrats
Ray Burnet	Liberal Democrats
Rob Harris	Conservatives
Libby Hart	Conservatives
Ken Jemedafe	Labour
Martyna Marcinkowska	Green Party
Roseanne Meacher	Labour
David Morris	Labour
Matt Sinclair	Conservatives
Tom Stojanovic	Reform UK

Fulham Reach
Candidate	Party
James Christopher Bennett	Reform UK
David Campbell	Labour
Tereza Cervenova	Green Party
Caroline Ruth Ffiske	Conservatives
Ash Goddard	Green Party
Fuad Hendricks	Conservatives
Anna Magryta-Urban	Labour
Mark Richard Nelson	Conservatives
Meher Oliaji	Liberal Democrats
Jelena Sarmo	Liberal Democrats
Shelly Sawyer	Reform UK
Joe Soares	Reform UK
Nikos Souslous	Labour

Walham Green
Candidate	Party
Elinor Alice Bale	Conservatives
Edward Colnet	Reform UK
Sam Kelly	Labour
Genevieve Nwaogbe	Labour
Ann Savage	Green Party
Dan Taub	Reform UK
Luigi Trovato	Liberal Democrats
Oliver Wessely	Liberal Democrats
James Windsor-Clive	Conservatives

Lillie
Candidate	Party
Saadi Chowdhury	Conservatives
Francis Flaherty	Liberal Democrats
Maria Guerrero	Green Party
Subodh Gupta	Reform UK
Sharon Holder	Labour
Lydia Paynter	Labour
Daniel Pienaar	Reform UK
Tom Wade	Conservatives

West Kensington
Candidate	Party
David Amos	Reform UK
Denise Baker	Green Party
Gill Barnes	Liberal Democrats
Jackie Borland	Conservatives
Victoria Brignell	Labour
Daryl Brown	Labour
Florian Chevoppe-Verdier	Labour
Jose Espinas	Liberal Democrats
Martin Howe	Reform UK
Hilary MacDonald	Reform UK
Yaz Monerawela	Conservatives
Harry Phibbs	Conservatives
Sarah Taylor	Liberal Democrats

Labour has held a majority on the council since the 2014 election. The PollCheck analysis projects that majority continuing on 7 May — but reduced. The current pre-election council composition of Labour 36, Conservative 10, Green 2 and one Independent is projected to shift modestly: Labour losing one or two seats to Conservative recovery in Munster and possibly Sands End, with the Greens unable to convert their vote share into seats under first-past-the-post.

Stephen Cowan's administration looks set for a fifth term, though with a slimmer mandate than the 40-seat clean sweep that swept him back in 2022. However, these projections are based on historic assumptions about voting patterns which may be blown up by the current more fluid loyalties of the electorate.

The elections will take place on Thursday 7 May.

Residents who wish to apply for someone to vote on their behalf, must submit a new proxy vote application. The deadline to apply for a proxy vote is  5pm on Tuesday 28 April.  

Written with contributions from Andrew Smith

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