Local Agents Predict Post-election Bounce for Fulham Property Prices

Price drops in first three months to reverse in "new mood of optimism"

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Local estate agents are predicting a strong post-election bounce for Fulham property prices as new figures show them faltering in the first three months of the year.

During this period the average price  fell by 11.1%, slipping to just under the million mark at £988,209.

The volume of sales meanwhile was almost halved, down 45.3% compared with the same period last year - down from 300 to just 164.

No detached houses were sold during these months and only two semi-detached, probably due to concerns over Labour's proposed mansion tax.

The average price of terraced houses meanwhile dropped by 8.9% to £1,616.795 while flats fell by 9.3% to £703,451.

Agents however say this gloomy picture has changed completely since the decisive election result.

Peter Rollings, CEO of Marsh and Parsons says: " The post-election feel-good factor could well kick in immediately and 2015 may prove to be a reversed version of 2014 in starting slowly and finishing strongly.

"The top-end market will be breathing a huge sigh of relief that £2m+ properties won’t be penalised by a mansion tax, a levy that would have stifled activity in the capital and across the South East.

"Any such tax could also have had implications on lower rungs of the property ladder too, so it is not just wealthier homeowners who should be counting their blessings."

Brian Corson of North End Road based agents Lawsons & Daughters says: " This new mood of optimism will have a positive effect on sales volumes in Hammersmith, Shepherd’s Bush, Fulham and Putney.

" In election years, there are typically 15% more transactions than what would be expected in a non-election year for at least six months after the polls close.

" And a rise of up to 30% in the number of transactions, when compared with the market before the election, also typically means a rise in property values as the housing sales sector becomes more heated."

Winkworth CEO Dominic Agace says: " “There are a lot of people out there who were just waiting for the election result. Now that the result is known, they will be putting their house on the market."


Fulham property

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Market Survey says that London house prices were back into positive territory in April, after seven months in decline, with short term predictions suggesting further rises.

28% more chartered surveyors saw prices rise in London in April, the first positive reading in the capital after seven negative months in the run up to the election. Price expectations over the next three months are also positive, with 11% more respondents expecting prices to rise further.

New instructions fell sharply with 36% more chartered surveyors seeing a decline, while the capital also saw an increase in buyer enquiries for the first time in a year as both these factors contributed to the pick-up in prices. Activity levels over the last month decreased most sharply in London where 21% more respondents reported a fall rather than rise in newly agreed sales

52% more respondents expect prices to rise over the next twelve months in London and the predicted average percentage price rise for houses in the capital over each of the next five years is 5.4%.

Meanwhile, in the lettings sector, supply has been rising steadily in London for three years now but the growth in tenant demand is not far behind. As a result, 39% more chartered surveyors expect rents to rise over the next three months which is the highest reading since the first half of 2011.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, said: “It is conceivable that the decisive outcome to the election could encourage a pick-up in instructions to agents and ease some of the recent upward pressure on house prices but it is doubtful that this will be substantive enough to provide anything more than temporary relief. Alongside an increased flow of second hand stock, it is absolutely critical that new government focuses on measures to boost the flow of new build.’’

According to Land Registry figures London as a whole continued to see the highest price rises in the country in March rising by 11.3% to £462,799. This compares to a 5.3% increase for England and Wales which brought the average price up to £178,007. The peak was achieved in November 2007 when the average reached £181,049.

The number of properties sold in England and Wales for over £1 million decreased by 19 per cent to 851 from 1,049 a year earlier. Repossessions in England and Wales decreased by 45 per cent to 590 compared with 1,081 in January 2014
London was the region with the greatest fall in repossession sales with only 65 taking place in January 2015.

A detailed listing of properties sold recently in the area will be appearing in a forthcoming edition of the Fulham newsletter.

Fulham Property Prices (January - March 2015)
Area Semi-Det Sales Terraced Sales Flats/
Sales Overall Ave Total Sales
SW6 1 0 0 1961250 4 633884 19 864730 23
SW6 2 0 0 1329999 5 669824 31 761515 36
SW6 3 1250000 1 2250469 8 1115278 9 1627292 18
SW6 4 0 0 1844643 7 725375 12 1137737 19
SW6 5 0 0 1775500 5 635663 12 970909 17
SW6 6 0 0 1243813 8 776313 16 932146 24
SW6 7 1190000 1 1276962 13 552865 13 925102 27
Total 1220000 2 1616795 50 703451 112 988209 164
Change over quarter -59.3% 0.0% -8.9% -21.9% -9.3% -38.5% -11.1% -34.4%
Change over year -57.3% -71.4% 0.2% -50.5% 8.8% -41.4% -4.6% -45.3%
Change over three years - - 36.9% -42.5% 53.8% -37.8% 42.6% -38.6%
Change over five years - - 47.9% -49.5% 57.2% -16.4% 36.9% -29.6%
Change over ten years - - - - - - 99.2% -



May 22, 2015

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